2.12.20
By Rich Nell
Came across this Wait but Why infographic on Elon Musk’s much hyped Neuralink the other day and wanted to talk a bit about it.
First, this infographic is more an info-skyscraper. It’s enormous, but it’s really well done and a great education, even five years after it was first published.
Musk is quoted throughout so it appears that he participated in this ambitious Wait but Why project, which makes the final document even more impressive because it’s very honest with readers, sometimes brutally honest:
Musk wants to connect every neuron in the human brain to an electrode, not the sticky electrodes used in electrocardiography. They’re way too big. There are about 20 billion neurons in the cortex, or the outer layer of the human brain that makes us human and looks like a head of cauliflower. Imagine 20 billion sticky electrodes attached to your head and face.
Nor will this tiny silicon microarray of 100 electrodes work—still way too big.
According to the infographic authors, increasing the capacity of these silicon multielectrode arrays by 500 every 18 months, we wouldn’t reach a million total electrodes until the year 5017, a year that even Ray Kurzweil will never see.
But when has production capacity ever remained at a constant rate? It always eventually goes exponential. If we doubled the number of electrodes in these silicon arrays every 18 months—basically Moore’s transistor law but for electrodes—we’ll hit a million in 12 years.
How long would it take to hit 20 billion? Do the math and let me know.
Keep in mind, this doesn’t solve the size problem. These tiny arrays are still way too large to be practical. Also keep in mind Musk’s ultimate goal: a whole-brain interface, or what Musk calls “a wizard hat for the brain.”
The entire brain, including the outer cauliflower dome plus the lower “animal brain,” including the cerebellum and cortex—where involuntary functions and automatic survival instincts reside—contain another 80 billion neurons, for a grand total of 100 billion neurons.
That’s the same number of stars in the Milky Way!
And it gets worse.
Research shows that there’s a limit to the number of neurons we can simultaneously record and this limit is rising at a predictable rate:
“Sometimes called Stevenson’s Law, this research suggests that the number of neurons we can simultaneously record seems to consistently double every 7.4 years. If that rate continues, it’ll take us till the end of this century to reach a million, and until 2225 to record every neuron in the brain and get our totally complete wizard hat.”
On the plus side, the infographic helps you to appreciate the incredible endowment every human on earth is given for free at birth: A brain. It’s the most miraculous machine ever made. (Although, I’m still partial to God’s machine shop: the ribosome.)
Of course, we don’t need the complete wizard hat to make significant quality of life improvements for those with paralysis, memory loss and perhaps even mental illnesses. In fact, many companies without the same brand power of Mr. Musk have already made great strides in Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI), which is what Neuralink is: a BMI with a great publicist.